outlook predicts winter crop production will soar by 72 per cent to 38 million tonnes, significantly above the five-year average.

The regions which have had good rains – Western Australia, Queensland and northern NSW – will lead the farm surge.

But the outlook for much of Victoria, southern NSW and parts of South Australia is listed as “uncertain” and rice production has fallen by almost 90 per cent.

Low rainfall in some areas and the high price of fertiliser – which means less of it is used – overhang any major increases in yields.

The survey, by NAB's agribusiness bankers, comes as farmers start to plant winter crops in most areas following recent rains.

Good soil moisture in northern NSW had laid “a very good foundation” for an expansion in winter crop plantings in 2008-09, the survey found.

Wheat production in NSW is tipped to rise three-fold this season.

Confidence in the state's livestock and dairy sectors remained positive, but harvests of irrigated crops are down because of drought.