DPI Seasonal Conditions Coordinator, Ian McGowen said that while good rain is needed in many areas, drier and warmer than normal conditions are likely across NSW between November and January.

“During October we saw below average rainfall across 88 per cent of the State, and at the same time daytime temperatures were the highest on record,” Mr McGowen said.

“About one third of the State received no rainfall at all in October, with about half of the State receiving less than 10 mm.

“As a result, pasture growth declined across the north coast and western, north western and central western NSW.

“Unfortunately predictions are for these drier than normal conditions to continue across most of NSW for the November to January period.”

Mr McGowen said earlier this week the Bureau of Meteorology reviewed the likelihood of an El Niño event occurring, and consider that there is now a 70 per cent chance.

“The Pacific Ocean has shown some renewed signs of El Niño development in recent weeks, with above-average temperatures warming further and the Southern Oscillation Index remaining negative,” Mr McGowen said.

“However it’s worth noting that in the past El Niño events have had a limited effect on summer rainfall across NSW in the year they occur – it does not necessarily result in less rain at this time of year.”

Mr McGowen said cereal crop yields are expected be close to average across the east of the cropping belt, poorer in areas of the south west and the central west and very poor in areas of the north west.

“Barley has generally performed well, but canola and some pulse crops have suffered from frosting, lack of rain and high temperatures in many areas, particularly in the south west,” Mr McGowen said.

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