A general dearth of high quality, high protein wheat across the country has been exacerbated by widespread downgrading among late Victorian crops following harvest rain.
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Spreads are opening up between milling and feed grain wheat with the expectation that deliveries from now on in southern NSW, Victoria and south-eastern South Australia will be weather damaged.
The difference between Hard 2 and general purpose (GP) wheat is now around $60 a tonne, with prices delivered upcountry Victoria ranging from $320/t for GP to $380/t for H2.
There are few publicly available quotes for Australian Prime Hard (APH) reflecting the dearth of high protein wheat to come off.
Yields and grain soundness were good through the southern grain belt prior to the rain, but a combination of the big yields last year and a lack of access to nitrogen fertiliser put a cap on protein levels.
The big crops in 2022 ripped out large volumes of soil nitrogen, critical to bolstering protein levels while logistical issues meant many farmers had difficulty accessing urea fertiliser in a timely manner.
Craig Henderson, Victorian Farmers Federation grains group president, said much of the northern Wimmera and southern Mallee had only limited issues with weather induced downgrading.
"There is not a lot to come off north of the line of Donald through to Warracknabeal and generally there have not been major issues with downgrading," he said.
"We've been reasonably happy with the yields, but certainly the protein is down."
He said further to the west and south through the Wimmera there had been heavier falls and less harvest prior to the rain.
"They're probably expecting more issues with low falling numbers and grain being downgraded."
A rain event from Saturday to Monday delivered a widespread 15-40mm over much of the Wimmera, a lot of it on top of areas that received up to 100mm a fortnight ago, which farmers expect will be the final nail in the coffin in terms of crop quality.
In southern NSW Justin Everitt, NSW Farmers grains committee chairman, said there had been a mixed bag in terms of crop damage.
"A lot of people managed to get good volumes off prior to the rain, but for those that have had the heavier falls and struggled to get back out there definitely have problems with quality."
Similar to other places he said protein had been very low, which he mainly attributed to the lack of fertiliser at critical growth stages in the crop.
However, he said yields had been reasonable, although knocked around by early October heat, and prices had generally held up reasonably well in spite of slightly better than anticipated production.
The low protein story continued up into Australia's high protein heartland.
Matthew Madden, Grain Producers Australia board member and Moree farmer said in spite of the dry season, generally conducive to higher protein levels, a lack of fertiliser application had kept protein levels down.
"The real high protein country to the west of Moree out to Walgett was not planted due to the dry in many cases and in areas to the east of the Newell (highway) there was a little grain there but the protein was off."
Through work with the Grains Australia wheat council Mr Madden said he had also heard that protein levels were disappointing in Western Australia.
"They have been trending downwards in terms of wheat protein levels for a couple of years and this season looks to be on that same pathway," he said.