Since the commencement of the 2019/20 season, prices in the allocation market have remained broadly steady, yet heightened from last season.
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Neither, buyers or sellers were willing to act quickly to enter the allocation market remaining in a poised position, which reflected in limited trade occurring in the first week of July.
However, with the persistent widespread dry conditions, it is expected that the allocation market will begin to pick up momentum.
How the allocation market behaves over the next few months will greatly depend on winter and spring rainfall and inflows.
Inflows have been running below the long-term average for the past 12 months.
Current climatic outlooks for the next three-month period remain limited for the likelihood of any significant rainfall events and subsequent inflows.
On July 15 the NSW Department of Industry and Water advised allocations for NSW Murray and Murrumbidgee entitlement holders remained unchanged.
For the NSW Murray system, there are shortfalls in operational and environmental commitments of around 45,000 megalitres (ML), therefore future inflows will need to accrue here as a priority.
The NSW Murray Conveyance entitlement must receive 165,000ML prior to any general security allocations. Currently, the conveyance entitlement has been allocated 20,000ML.
The announcement for Murrumbidgee entitlement holders provided some optimistic data.
Describing recent rainfall events and account reconciliation as having helped meet demand and system losses.
High Priority needs have also been met for next year. If a deficit cannot accumulate, allocation may accrue to General Security entitlement holders.
The NSW Department of Industry and Water will make the next water allocation statement announcement on Thursday 1st August 2019.
In contrast, allocations on Victorian High-Security licences have opened at low levels, which has come as no surprise considering the present climatic conditions.
The low availability of water has already begun to limit the allocation market and ensure that sellers with any volume are hard to find this early in this season.
Water users should also be aware of potential factors, such as trade limitations.
So far this season the Barmah Choke has closed off the ability to trade from above the choke to below the choke.
At the time of writing, the Goulburn IVT has adjusted to 33,437ML, meaning there is a potential for it the close any day.
With the current water availability and tightening of where water can be traded in mind, Ruralco Water is observing a trend of increasing numbers, with customers reviewing their water budgets for the coming months. Now may be a good time to secure at least part of this season's water requirements.