Second year of high production for winter crops

The figures come on the back of near-ideal seasonal conditions across most of the growing area and were released in Rabobank's Australian Winter Crop 2021/22 Production, Price and Inputs Forecast, this week.

Canola is the stand-out mover, with production estimated to reach a new record of 5.16 million tonnes (up 14 per cent on last year and 48 per cent above the five-year average).

Australia's wheat production is expected to come in at 31.9 million tonnes (down four per cent on last year, but still 35 per cent above the five-year average). Barley production is forecast to be down 10 per cent on last year to 11.7 million tonnes, though also still up on the five-year average (by seven per cent).

Report co-author, Rabobank agriculture analyst Dennis Voznesenski said Australia's second consecutive very large winter crop "comes at an opportune time for local growers, with global shortages and high prices for grains and oilseeds".

"Short global supplies of grains and oilseeds will continue to support Australian prices over the year ahead," he said. "And although global prices can be expected to soften as new crops in different regions around the world come into play, the uncertainty that exists around seasonal conditions in grain-growing areas and the process of global grain stocks re-building will keep prices at least above the range of the last six to seven years."

The report notes favourable growing conditions in Australia have seen expectations of increased amounts of high-protein wheat in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia this harvest - "timed perfectly" with a current global shortage of high-protein wheat, due to drought in North America.

Other factors include a lower supply of malt-quality barley - due to a reduction in barley planting, and particularly malt varieties - and less grain baled for hay.